PORTRAIT OF A COFFEE HOUSE: People engage in conversation, for it is there that news is communicated and where those interested in politics criticize the government in all freedom and without being fearful, since the government does not heed what the people say. {Jean Chardin, 17th Century French Traveller}

21 February 2011

The Cliff Notes Version of Events: Gaddafi has gone mad, Saleh is sad, Saudi is stunned, Obama and Hillary are baffled and everyone else is pissed off...

For anyone who has been keeping track of the protests that have exploded across the Middle East, since Ben Ali's and Mubarak's disgraceful exits, every other country in the region has basically exploded. Protests have spread across to Yemen, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Palestinian Territories, Syria, Algeria, Libya, Sudan, and now Morocco. Obama administration officials are scrambling to find a proper response to what's going on (or rather trying to figure out what is going on).

To be entirely frank, I lost track after Egypt. I think every other news junkie is also taken aback by information overload from the major international bureaus, news forums, Twitter, and Facebook feeds.

In Libya, Muammar Gaddafi has decided to take from the authoritarian playbook and violently crack down against protesters which of course has only served to make them angrier. Reuters just reported that Gaddafi has declared that he will fight protests against his rule until the "last man standing" a quote by his son who appeared on state television to deliver the message. Gaddafi has to be mad considering his 'dic' neighbours have been kicked out and that people have essentially lost their fear. An update by Iranian news states that according to an unnamed 'report' Gaddafi has left Libya for Venezuela or Brazil although this is entirely unverified. It appears these rumors are still flying this afternoon. I'm convinced the media is trying to create a self-fulfilling prophecy by headlining Gaddafi's exit prior to it actually happening. 

Recent events in Bahrain have utterly baffled the Obama administration. The Al Khalifa ruling family is rumored to be divided on how to respond to the protests. Emile Nakleh, a former member of the intelligence community, wrote a critical piece in the Financial Times today on the Al Khalifa family urging US to 'not fear forces' behind the protests in Bahrain. "The ruling family believed that Saudi and western support would shield it from accountability to its people.... But now events in Tunisia and Egypt are giving a clear indication to the al-Khalifas and other 'princely' regimes in the neighbourhood that such outside support cannot shore up a government if it has no legitimacy with its people. It should not, therefore, be surprising that the opposition is drawing wide support across Bahraini society. As in Tunisia and Egypt, it is neither driven nor controlled by Islamist ideology. Of course since the Shia are the majority, many of the demonstrators are Shia. But it is also true that the protesters include liberal Sunnis."

Speaking of baffled, Saudi Arabia has taken a lukewarm stance toward Bahrain declaring its "absolute rejection" in meddling in Bahraini affairs according to the Saudi Gazette. Saudi Arabia sits uncomfortably sandwiched between several protesting countries and I suppose the Saudis themselves don't want to incite any internal unrest within their own borders by taking sides with anyone in Bahrain.

In Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh is talking big about making compromises with the protesters, first by declaring he would not run for elections again in the fall (the man's been in office since 1978) and more recently making offers to open up negotiations with his political opposition, an offer which has just been rejected.

Meanwhile, Team Obama appears entirely confused and the term a 'balancing act' has been so overused by foreign policy analysts it's become cliché. Truly, if Obama policies are to be compared to gymnastics then Middle East policy is a Chinese acrobat. The US recently vetoed a UN resolution declaring Israeli settlements illegal a move that was condemned by Palestinian protesters. Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton has urged restraint on the Al Khalifa family in regards to protesters and furthermore demanded that Gaddafi punish any security personnel responsible for violence against protesters. US foreign policy can't go back to the same old business of funding dictators' high-flying life style. I hope that the uprisings taking place across North Africa and the Middle East will give American policy-makers from now on into the future a shake-up. Supporting those who oppress their own people is never a lucrative investment for the long run. Of course, I'm being optimistic. Politicians will never change although there's nothing more amusing than to watch them reap the consequences of their own bad policies.

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