PORTRAIT OF A COFFEE HOUSE: People engage in conversation, for it is there that news is communicated and where those interested in politics criticize the government in all freedom and without being fearful, since the government does not heed what the people say. {Jean Chardin, 17th Century French Traveller}

17 March 2011

The end of the world? No, just the continuity of history. Fukuyama was wrong. History didn't end.

Catching up with news this week has left my head dizzy. The recent tragedy in Japan is set to earmark the world's most expensive natural catastrophes at USD $170 billion. What makes this all the more tragic is that Wikileaks released cables highlighting Japan had been warned by an IEAE official back in 2008 that some of its nuclear plants were not ready for earthquakes and had not updated their safety procedures. Japanese politicians and nuclear industry heads turned a blind eye to the warnings for the sake of business and expanding Japanese nuclear projects.

Developments in the Middle East and North Africa are also not looking positive. Libya, in the meantime, has exploded into civil war and recent news suggests that Libyan rebels are beginning to lose ground to Gaddafi forces. Some commentators are opining that Obama is missing out on a golden moment to intervene in the Libyan crisis, although the US President is calling for Gaddafi to make an exit. I honestly believe the US is delaying any action because of our recent experience in Iraq and Afghanistan, not to mention it's a "damned if we do, damned if we don't" situation per usual in international intervention considerations.

In Bahrain, the royal family is calling for the aid of Saudi security forces in a protest that is getting out of hand. Literally, this morning, there were photos of Pearl Square up in smoke and the Bahraini government declared a state of emergency and martial law. Speaking of Saudi Arabia, we're not getting much information concerning protests in Saudi, although Reuters noted that Saudi Shi'ites marched in support of Shi'ites in Bahrain. There was also a rumor circulating a week or so ago, of a 27-year old Saudi Facebook activist who was allegedly shot dead by Saudi security forces, although no one has been able to confirm this story.

Palestinian protesters called for an end to their divided government and to corruption in the Palestinian Territories although protesters were apparently met by Hamas security forces who fought to disperse the crowd. This amidst the publicity surrounding the Palestine Papers, which revealed the mess of backdoor negotiations between the Palestinian Authority, the US, Israel, and Britain, and other regional players with a stake in a potential settlement.

One would think that the whole 2012 hype had an inkling of truth, that the world is heading for a cataclysmic end, just from reading the news lately between consecutive natural catastrophes, potential nuclear meltdown in Japan, and major political transformations in the Middle East. I take from the Oswald Spengler school of thought: change is the only constant, history is cyclical and, unfortunately, repeats itself. It's interesting to note, at least in recent history, turns of centuries marked dramatic changes. From 1800 into 1900, we suffered two great wars; from 1700 into 1800, revolutions; from 1600 into 1700... well, actually, in 1700 the Pacific Northwest happened to be struck by a magnitude 9 earthquake and Japan by an ensuing tsunami.

Goes to show, some things never change but we could well be better prepared for them.

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