The Dangers of Revolution

Keeping track of developments in Egypt and Tunisia post-revolution is watching history unfold and wondering if it will repeat itself or utterly pull a black swan. Revolutions have an uncanny way of developing and no one can ever predict what happens after the revolution. I am immensely happy to see the people of Egypt and Tunisia overthrow the yokes of their long-ruling dictators but I'm also aware toppling a dictator was the 'easy part.' Establishing political stability in these countries as well as a stable democracy will be the biggest challenge yet. A good dose of realism is necessary in regards to the political process in lieu of a power-vacuum. Democracy will require constant vigilance and public accountability, human security and economic prosperity to truly be stable. At worse, if democracy does not prevail these countries will end up the pickings between corrupt strongmen vying for power.

Right now, Egypt and Tunisia are in transition, a slow going, fragile and tense process with Egypt due to have parliamentary elections in September and Tunisia in July. Bahrain and Syria are under dictatorial pressures and major crackdowns with little being said and done by the international community in their regard, albeit today the US imposed sanctions on Syria in response to the ongoing violence. Jordan and Saudi Arabia are playing major balancing acts trying to satisfy their own discontent groups and seeking out regional stability. Libya is in civil war and Yemen has the potential to explode into a bloodbath as Saleh keeps pressing his time-buying tactics with the GCC.

Iraq is a vision of things that could potentially happen in these other countries if revolution succeeds. US forces are officially due to pull out of Iraq at the end of this year but what they leave behind is potentially disconcerting.  Iraq's leaders are still divided as to US troop withdrawal at the end of the year. Iraq has had to contend with its own local protests and often news from Iraq has been drowned out amid everything else going on in the region as well as recent limitations placed on free media. The curbing of press freedoms in Iraq either through legal means or outright intimidation and violence is already an ill omen for the country.

One might argue Iraq is a bad case to which to compare Egypt, Tunisia, and the other Arab countries in the middle of revolts or, in Libya's case, civil war. After all, Saddam Hussein was toppled by a foreign military intervention not by a revolution. Yet with its sectarian, tribal, and ethnic divisions and its energy resources, Iraq is a good deal similar to the other countries currently amid uprisings of the so-called Arab Spring and may well foreshadow the potential political arena these countries could face after downing their current governments. In theory, Iraq has a 'democracy' in place but in practice sectarian violence is ongoing as different groups continue to vie for power over the country. Corruption is rife and institutional structures to bring about much needed stability and enhance nationwide security are still weak. Consider the recent news: a wave of assassinations across the country has been blamed on Shi'ite militias. Security forces and police are divided by factions with set loyalties and the current problem lies in having control over security across the country. As of today, no consensus exists and no stable government has been formed.

Recent events in Tunisia and Egypt emphasize the need to be wary. The transitional 'unity' government established by PM Mohammed Ghannouchi in Tunisia leaves many of Ben Ali's former allies in key posts and opposition leaders are critical and impatient with the slow pace of change. On a positive note, Ghannouchi has announced reforms for total freedom of press, the release of prisoners of conscience and corruption investigations for those who amassed wealth under Ben Ali. It's been almost 100 days since Mubarak's ouster in Egypt,  the country has been in a state of lawlessness, emergency laws haven't yet been lifted, and the population look expectantly to Mubarak's prosecution. The ruling party was dissolved in April, but Egypt remains under military rule while in transition and many Egyptians fear a counter-revolution. Tensions between Christians and Muslims led to clashes at the over the alleged conversion of a Christian woman to Islam and tensions between pro-Mubarak supporters and anti-Mubarak protesters still exist.  Furthermore, liberal or secularist Tunisians and Egyptians cast a wary eye at Islamist parties who are beginning to exercise their political participation in each respective country.

The question is will these countries be able to balance freedom of political participation while still affording religious rights, protections for minority groups and women, anti-corruption measures, and freedom of the press? Or will the political processes taking place in Tunisia and Egypt degenerate to violence, or, God forbid, another dictatorship?

In the words of Alexander Herzen, a 19th-century Russian writer: "Beware the oppressors, beware the liberators." Political transformations are always riddled with chaos, in them lie both risk and opportunity.